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Value bets today: prices above the market
A value price pays more than the outcome's fair probability suggests. We work out fair odds from the whole market, then compare prices against them.
Fair odds for upcoming matches
| Match | 1 | X | 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Monza – Cagliari18:30 · Serie A | 2.55Fair price: 2.69 | 3.10Fair price: 3.27 | 2.92Fair price: 3.08 | 5.4% |
| Wisła Płock – Radomiak Radom19:00 · PKO BP Ekstraklasa | 1.84Fair price: 1.96 | 3.75Fair price: 3.99 | 3.90Fair price: 4.15 | 6.2% |
| Czarni Słupsk – Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski19:00 · ORLEN Basket Liga | 1.62Fair price: 1.75 | – | 2.15Fair price: 2.32 | 7.6% |
| Parma Calcio – Torino FC20:45 · Serie A | 3.20Fair price: 3.35 | 3.05Fair price: 3.19 | 2.45Fair price: 2.56 | 4.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur – Coventry City21:00 · Premier League | 1.54Fair price: 1.60 | 4.60Fair price: 4.80 | 5.60Fair price: 5.85 | 4.3% |
| Getafe CF – Rayo Vallecano21:00 · LaLiga | 3.05Fair price: 3.19 | 2.90Fair price: 3.03 | 2.67Fair price: 2.79 | 4.5% |
| New York Rangers – Anaheim DucksTue 01:00 · NHL | 2.05Fair price: 2.20 | 4.10Fair price: 4.41 | 2.90Fair price: 3.12 | 7.1% |
| Philadelphia Flyers – Colorado AvalancheTue 01:00 · NHL | 4.00Fair price: 4.28 | 4.30Fair price: 4.60 | 1.70Fair price: 1.82 | 6.6% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs – San Jose SharksTue 01:30 · NHL | 2.15Fair price: 2.32 | 4.20Fair price: 4.53 | 2.65Fair price: 2.86 | 7.5% |
| Utah Mammoth – Pittsburgh PenguinsTue 03:00 · NHL | 1.85Fair price: 1.99 | 4.30Fair price: 4.64 | 3.25Fair price: 3.51 | 7.5% |
| HC Vítkovice – Bílí Tygři LiberecTue 17:30 · Tipsport extraliga | 2.82Fair price: 3.06 | 4.00Fair price: 4.35 | 2.07Fair price: 2.25 | 8.1% |
| Energie Karlovy Vary – HC Kometa BrnoTue 18:00 · Tipsport extraliga | 2.00Fair price: 2.17 | 3.90Fair price: 4.25 | 3.00Fair price: 3.26 | 8.2% |
| Kpr Ostrovia Ostrow Wlkp – KPR LegionowoTue 18:00 · ORLEN Superliga | 1.36Fair price: 1.47 | 9.90Fair price: 10.75 | 4.00Fair price: 4.34 | 7.9% |
| Fenerbahçe Istanbul – Slavia PrahaTue 18:45 · Champions League | 1.66Fair price: 1.76 | 4.10Fair price: 4.36 | 4.60Fair price: 4.89 | 6.0% |
| Sabah Masazir – Borussia DortmundTue 18:45 · Champions League | 8.60Fair price: 9.04 | 6.00Fair price: 6.31 | 1.30Fair price: 1.36 | 5.0% |
| HC Zubří – HC Dukla PrahaTue 19:30 · Czech Handball Extraliga | 1.80Fair price: 2.00 | 7.00Fair price: 7.79 | 2.41Fair price: 2.68 | 10.2% |
| AS Roma – ŠK Slovan BratislavaTue 21:00 · Champions League | 1.15Fair price: 1.20 | 8.36Fair price: 8.76 | 17.0Fair price: 17.81 | 4.6% |
| FC Porto – PSV EindhovenTue 21:00 · Champions League | 1.59Fair price: 1.69 | 4.35Fair price: 4.62 | 4.90Fair price: 5.20 | 5.9% |
| Liverpool FC – Villarreal CFTue 21:00 · Champions League | 1.52Fair price: 1.60 | 4.65Fair price: 4.90 | 5.50Fair price: 5.80 | 5.2% |
| Manchester City – AEK AthensTue 21:00 · Champions League | 1.10Fair price: 1.15 | 10.0Fair price: 10.54 | 22.0Fair price: 23.2 | 5.2% |
| Paris Saint-Germain – FC BarcelonaTue 21:00 · Champions League | 2.40Fair price: 2.55 | 4.25Fair price: 4.51 | 2.43Fair price: 2.58 | 6.0% |
| SSC Napoli – Bodoe/GlimtTue 21:00 · Champions League | 1.62Fair price: 1.72 | 4.30Fair price: 4.56 | 4.70Fair price: 4.99 | 5.9% |
| VfB Stuttgart – Atlético MadridTue 21:00 · Champions League | 3.14Fair price: 3.32 | 3.65Fair price: 3.86 | 2.14Fair price: 2.26 | 5.6% |
| Detroit Pistons – Boston CelticsTue 21:00 · NBA | 1.90Fair price: 2.00 | – | 1.90Fair price: 2.00 | 5.0% |
2.10 Market average2.25 Fair price
Fair odds
We take the market's average prices, remove the margin with the multiplicative method and turn the resulting fair probability back into a price: fair odds = 1 ÷ fair probability. The full method is in our odds methodology.
value = price × fair probability − 1
Example: a price of 2.30 on an outcome with a fair probability of 46% gives a value of +5.8%.
Before you use it
- A value price is not a guaranteed profit. The fair probability is an estimate, and the market can be wrong.
- Prices change quickly; check the price at the bookmaker before you bet.
- Bet only what you can afford to lose (responsible gambling).