Odds methodology

Where prices come from

Licensed data providers deliver prices to our servers on a schedule. Our pages never contact a bookmaker or a data provider while you load them. We store every price change, which gives us opening prices, price history and closing odds.

Each market is mapped to one standard name (for example match result, over/under 2.5 goals or both teams to score), and each match is checked to be the same event at every source before we show its prices.

Average market odds

The market average for an outcome is the median of all prices we hold for it. Unlike a simple mean, the median ignores a single stale or promotional price.

Example: a match priced at 2.10 for a home win, 3.40 for a draw and 3.50 for an away win. We use these prices in every example below.

Payout and margin

payout = 100% ÷ (1/price₁ + 1/price₂ + …)

In the example the inverse prices add up to 105.6%, so the payout is 94.7% and the margin 5.6%. A payout of 95% means that on average 95 of every 100 units staked on the market are paid back; the rest is the bookmaker's margin. Higher payout is better for you.

Fair probabilities

A price implies a probability of 1 ÷ price: 47.6%, 29.4% and 28.6% in the example. Because of the margin these add up to more than 100%. We remove the margin by dividing each implied probability by their sum (the multiplicative method), which gives fair probabilities of 45.1%, 27.9% and 27.1%.

These fair probabilities are what our 'who will win' bar shows. They are calculated from every bookmaker we receive, including low-margin bookmakers and exchanges that we never display, because their prices are the most accurate guide to the true chances.

Best price and order

A price is marked best when it is the highest available for that outcome among the bookmakers shown to you; ties are all marked. Best prices are shown in bold with a tint and the label 'best', never by colour alone.

In each country we show prices from up to three licensed bookmakers whose odds we receive, then the other licensed bookmakers as logos. Which bookmakers appear is decided by licences in your country. No bookmaker can pay for its position.

Polish stake tax

In Poland 12% of every stake is tax, and bookmakers pass it on to players: of a 100 zł stake, 88 zł is in play. For visitors in Poland we therefore show prices after tax (price × 0.88) by default and label them. Wins above PLN 2,280 are also taxed at 10% of the whole amount. Our bet calculator includes both.

Odds movement and dropping odds

The opening price is the first price we recorded for an outcome; movement arrows compare a price with its previous value.

For dropping odds we take, for each outcome, the median price at the start of the time window and the median price now, across the bookmakers that priced it at both moments, and show what share of those bookmakers shortened their price by at least 1%.

Closing odds

The closing price is a bookmaker's last price before kick-off. We keep closing prices permanently: they are the best measure of how the market rated a match, and they are what we show for finished matches and in head-to-head records.

How fresh the prices are

Pre-match prices are refreshed within minutes, and the comparison on a match page is never more than a few seconds behind our database. Prices can still change at the bookmaker before you place a bet, so always check the price on the bookmaker's own site.